Ceasefire declared; Core Durable Goods Surprises; Markets Celebrate; RBNZ Rate Decision and FOMC Meeting Minutes Today
Summary: Ceasefire declared in Iranian conflict, markets celebrate. RBNZ rate decision due today, as well as FOMC Meeting Minutes.
- Core Durable Goods Orders in American surprised, although the overall Durable Goods Orders disappointed. Ceasefire announced in the conflict, as markets celebrate.
- The Core Durable Goods Orders m/m number was 0.8%, hotter than the expected 0.5%. Overall Durable Goods m/m came in a 1.4%, instead of the expected 1.1%, as traders are continuing to deal with the disruptions in global supply chains. This shows just how mixed the data that the Fed will be dealing with in making interest rate decisions, as distortions continue to be the norm.
- Crude Oil collapsed almost immediately as the ceasefire was announced. In fact, within an hour or two of the Asian open, it dropped over 15%. The US Dollar has softened, with the usual suspects of the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, and others rallying with risk appetite coming back into the fold.
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is expected today, but no change is to be expected as central banks around the world are trying to sort out the disruptions caused by the war.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes being released late in trading from the USA could be a slight market mover, although the real question will be whether there were any dissenters, and what their thoughts were about cutting. The reality is that war is still the most important factor though.
- Bitcoin continues to perform somewhat well, all things considered. The end of the session on Tuesday saw strong buying as the longer-term “basing pattern” continues.
- The US 10 Year Yield fell below the crucial 4.30% level after the ceasefire announcement but should continue to be a major level for trader to focus on.