Stock markets are retracing within a very bullish AI-driven market environment.
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- The major story in the financial markets continues to be the advance of global stock markets to new all-time high prices led by technology stocks, notably the AI sector. However, yesterday's rise was softer, and we have seen a bearish retracement within recent hours. The major index in South Korea (KOSPI Composite) and some US indices, notably the NASDAQ 100 Index, did make new all-time highs. This is a great time to be long of stocks, especially tech and AI stocks, and trend traders will already be positioned this way. Stock markets are mostly filtering out noise over the USA / Iran standoff.
- Crypto looks generally bearish, with Bitcoin falling steadily to get close to a new 2-month low near $70k. The weakness of crypto while technology stocks are rising to record highs is very telling, and the tell is not good news for crypto investors. This is a sector I will be avoiding at this time.
- Crude Oil is moving lower after President Trump capitulated to an Iranian threat made against a proposed Israeli targeting of Hezbollah in Beirut. After Iran hinted such an action in Beirut would jeapordise the entire ceasefire, Trump very publicly and dramatically halted the Israeli strike, saying a new ceasefire had been agreed in Lebanon. The ceasefire was broken by Hezbollah the same night. Trump is chasing his illusion that a good deal with Iran is possible, and this delusion will hit stock and crude oil markets when it finally blows up.
- In the Forex market, the US Dollar is just consolidating within its range of the past few days, showing no significant direction. The rest of the market has been relatively quiet so far today.
- Yesterday's release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in just slightly higher than expected, but it had no meaningful effect on the US Dollar.
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