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The US Dollar Index made a new 1-week high price after US PCE inflation rose 3.7% annually, above the 3.6% forecast. A daily close above 99.00 would strengthen the case for a broader bullish reversal, but the price was trading below this level as the London open approached today. In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar is clearly the strongest major currency.
Jackson Hole begins today, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh due to speak tomorrow. Expect elevated volatility in the US Dollar, Gold, stock indices, and major currency pairs.
Short Crude Oil remains the standout trend, with the daily price chart continuing to show a bearish price channel containing the price ever since the end of the Iran war. Brent is near $87.24 and WTI near $81.67 after multiple days of declines, as Iran–Qatar talks raise hopes for less disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping. In any case, it seems as if the US has effectively broken the Iranian stranglehold on meaningful import levels through the Strait, which should be relatively bearish for Crude Oil.
Gold is moving weakly lower after making a fresh three-month high very recently. The $4,700 area is an important round number ahead, and a sustained break above it would likely signify further upside. Below, the $4,500 area could become crucial support.
Bitcoin is holding near $79,000, while Ethereum is testing above the major $2,500 level. A firm daily close above $2,500 would be a bullish breakout signal for Ethereum momentum traders, and Ethereum looks like a stronger candidate for a major bullish breakout than Bitcoin on recent pair action.
Several agricultural commodities ("softs") have either just broken out or have recently broken out to fresh 6-month highs, which can be an attractive buying signal. Commodities with bullish breakouts include Sugar, Wheat, and Soybeans. These are available as cheaper ETFs for retail traders or investors.