Bitcoin remains below the important $80,000 level after last week’s cryptocurrency selloff. It is trading around $78,000–$78,500 this morning after reaching a six-week low on Friday. The reported $6.3 billion theft from Binance has added an industry-specific shock to an already fragile technical picture. The former bullish consolidation has weakened substantially: reclaiming $80,000 is now the first requirement before giving much weight to another attempt at the old $87,293 breakout threshold, which looks very unlikely to happen.
Tomorrow’s US midterm elections are the main political event this week. Prediction markets see a strong probability that the Democrats will take control of both Houses, Markets are assessing how control of Congress could affect taxation, spending, and fiscal policy. Major currencies are trading in relatively tight ranges ahead of the vote, with the Dollar Index near 101.94, EUR/USD around 1.1170, and GBP/USD near 1.3387. The Euro remains close to its 17-month low but has not yet confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown.
The RBA and Bank of England now take centre stage concerning central banks. The RBA decides tomorrow, with another 0.25% increase to 4.85% widely expected. On Thursday, the BoE is expected to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since 2023. With hikes already heavily anticipated, the Australian Dollar and the British Pound will probably respond more strongly to guidance on subsequent meetings than to the increases themselves.
Stock markets remain under pressure from concerns about AI spending. Asian trading is mixed and US futures have attempted a recovery after last week’s losses, but confidence in the technology trade remains fragile. Investors are questioning whether the scale of capital expenditure can deliver sufficient returns. Price action in equities, despite this morning's minor bounce, still looks weak.
Crude Oil has fallen as Iran diplomacy continues. Brent has traded around $110–$112 and WTI around $101–$102 during Asian trading, below Friday’s levels. Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at ending the conflict, reducing some of the immediate supply-risk premium. I believe a diplomatic solution is extremely unlikely and within a few days or weeks the USA will again attack Iran militarily, which will almost certainly send Crude Oil even higher.
Gold remains below $4,000 despite an early recovery. Spot Gold is near $3,900–$3,910 after reaching its lowest level in about a year on Friday. The recovery is tentative: $4,000 is now the first obvious level bulls need to regain, while the earlier $4,200 resistance remains substantially farther away.
There are no high-impact data releases due today, which coupled with the fact that today is Monday, might create a low-volatility market environment.
Forex Today: Bitcoin Below $80,000 After Crypto Heist
Chief Analyst and Director of ContentAdam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked with...
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Chief Analyst and Director of ContentAdam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
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