US employers posted 7.52 million job openings in September, about 370,000 more than economists expected and up from 7.19 million in August. The number that matters more is quits: 3.36 million people left their jobs, the most since March 2025.
People quit when they're confident they'll find a better-paid job. That's good news for workers, and exactly what the Fed worries about, because it tends to push wages and prices up. It lands three days before Friday's payrolls report, with markets already leaning toward a December rate hike.
Quits at their highest since March 2025 point to wage pressure
The whole report was firm. Openings rose to 4.5% of jobs from 4.3%, hiring picked up to about 5.4 million, and layoffs fell to 1.64 million, the fewest since March 2025. There's now roughly one open job for every person looking for work. Demand was broad, led by business services and local government.
Before the release, futures already put the chance of a December hike at about 77%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Charles Schwab. A tight labour market makes that hike easier to justify.
But there's a puzzle. Companies say they want workers, yet actual hiring has been slow: payrolls grew just 29,000 in September, and the forecast for Friday is about 59,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. Lots of job ads, not many new jobs. Friday will show which side is telling the truth.
EUR/USD waits near its yearly low
The euro has had a rough year against the dollar. EUR/USD closed at 1.1192 on Tuesday, down 4.7% since January and below both its 50-day and 200-day averages. It barely moved over the past week, though. Traders are waiting for Friday.
The level to win back: 1.1289, the 50-day average. A move above it would suggest the market doesn't believe the Fed will hike.
The floor to watch: 1.1105, the lowest level in a year. A close below it would be a fresh one-year low for the euro.
The risk: plenty of vacancies, too few hires
It's tempting to read strong job openings as an automatic win for the dollar. Three things could get in the way:
This is September's data. Friday's payrolls cover October and carry more weight with the Fed.
Job ads aren't jobs. If hiring disappoints again, high openings may say more about employers struggling to fill roles than about a booming economy.
Most of the hike is already priced in. Good news may lift the dollar less than bad news would sink it.
Friday's payrolls: what would change the picture
A payrolls number well below 59,000, or unemployment above 4.2%, would make a December hike much harder to justify, and the dollar would likely feel it. On the chart, EUR/USD back above 1.1289 would say the same thing. A break below 1.1105 would say the opposite.
Tuesday tilted the odds. Friday decides them. And with the euro this close to its low for the year, it won't take much to move it.
Sources: CNBC (3 Nov); JOLTS figures as reported by CNBC and QUE.com (3 Nov); CME FedWatch via Charles Schwab; market data FMP, closes of 3 Nov 2026.