Ripple did very little during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see the $0.75 level offering support. The 50 day EMA is slicing through the bit of consolidation that we have been in and going flat suggesting that perhaps we really do not have anywhere to be. That being said, it is not a huge surprise to think that possibly the market has nowhere to be because we are simply waiting for some type of catalyst to get moving. The most obvious one of course is the SEC lawsuit that Ripple is currently fighting. If we can get some type of certainty there, specifically a good result for Ripple, that could send this market much higher.
When you look at this chart, it is easy to see that we have been struggling over the last couple of weeks, and the fact that we formed a little bit of an inverted hammer does suggest that maybe we have further to go to the downside. If we break below the 0.75 handle, it would not surprise me at all to see Ripple go looking towards the $0.62 level. One thing that could be a driving factor is the Bitcoin market, because Bitcoin determines where all crypto goes. While I know that a lot of crypto people will talk about one protocol over another, the reality is that the big money is now in the crypto markets, and they determine what happens. Bitcoin needs to rally in order for them to feel more comfortable farther out on the risk spectrum.
When you look at this chart, you could even make a bit of an argument for a descending triangle, which measures for roughly the same move down to the $0.62 handle. On the other hand, if we were to turn around a break above the 200 day EMA, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the $1.00 level given enough time. I think you can count on volatility more than anything else, as this is a market that has no idea what it wants to do, but if you are a longer-term investor, you may get an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value after some type of dip. Ultimately, Ripple should have some type of resolution to the SEC lawsuit over the next several months, so this summer could be a major turning point.
