The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied again on Tuesday to break above the 50-day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that looks as if it is ready to take out the $112 level, an area that has been both support and resistance from a minor perspective multiple times in the past. Nonetheless, this is a market that has also been in an up-trending channel for a while, and it looks as if the market is going to continue to try to go higher.
It’s worth noting that most commodities have fallen, and crude oil is the “last man standing.” In other words, it may be running on some different fundamentals than the rest of the commodity markets, but you cannot ignore what some of them are telling you, and that is going to be that a major economic slowdown is on its way. If that’s going to be the case, that it makes a lot of sense that eventually, demand for crude oil will drop. However, we are nowhere near wiping out the supply quite yet, it’s worth noting that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States is at its lowest level since 1986.
While Joe Biden has been begging the Middle Eastern nations to produce more oil, they have essentially stated that they are perfectly comfortable with oil being where it’s at, and the amount that they are putting out. In other words, this is a story about demand destruction more than anything else. We need to see more demand destruction.
If we were to break down below the bottom of the channel, which would be roughly around $102, then we could see a little bit more of a bigger drop, especially if we can break down below the $100 level. If that happens, then the bottom will fall out of this market. On the other hand, it looks more likely than not that we will go to try to reach the $116 level, and then eventually the $124 level. That being said, this does not necessarily mean that it has to happen quickly, nor does it have to happen easily. I believe that we have more upward momentum than down, but it is going to continue to be very choppy.
