Bitcoin did very little Friday as we continue to just trade back and forth in a relatively well-defined range. This looks suspiciously like the one before it near the $30,000 level, and I think it is probably only a matter of time before we break down. That doesn’t necessarily mean that I think we’re going to collapse right away, or even that it will be that violent. What it does mean is that I don’t have much faith in this market at the moment.
As long as there is tight monetary policy coming out of the Federal Reserve, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where cryptocurrencies suddenly get run higher because they are about as far out on the spectrum of risk as you can go. You will see the market’s turnaround in other assets long before you see them turn around in crypto, so I think you have plenty of time to get involved here.
Ultimately, it would not surprise me at all to see this market break down and chop through the $18,000 level. If we do, then I will be paying close attention to Bitcoin near the $12,000 level. That’s an area where I think we will see a lot of structural support, and I will be very interested in it. Even if we do break out to the upside, I believe that the market still has plenty of resistance above, both technically and fundamentally. The 50-day EMA sits just below the $24,000 level, and the $28,000 level begins a significant amount of resistance.
Typically, consolidation means continuation, at least until it doesn’t. (I understand that’s not particularly useful, but statistically speaking it’s true.) With that being said, if we do fall from here and unwind quite a bit, I think you probably have quite a bit of time to build up a position. I would love to see crypto get crushed again, so I can buy more. I do believe that eventually, Bitcoin finds a buyer again, but it’s obvious that most of what we have seen so far has been hype and nothing else. It’s not until we find an actual use for Bitcoin that we will see a longer-term sustainable uptrend.
