- The NASDAQ 100 was initially trying to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but turned around quite sharply, especially during the Fed meeting.
- Frankly, this is a market that is going to continue to struggle in anything closely resembling a tight monetary policy, and that is something that was reiterated during the press conference.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points as anticipated but went on to state that they were going to do everything they could to fight inflation.
- Because of this, the market seems to have finally gotten it through its head that perhaps the Federal Reserve is serious.
Looking at this chart, I do think that we are more likely than not going to test the bottom again, closer to the 11,000 level. I don’t really see anything on this chart that says you should be a buyer, but there will be somebody out there pushing a narrative to try to convince you to do so. That being said, you need to understand that Wall Street’s job is to sell you stocks, nothing more. In other words, they want you buying stocks regardless of whether or not to make money. Because of this, be aware that there will almost certainly be some type of bullish narrative that gets reported soon, but the reality on the ground is that the economy is hurting, and the Federal Reserve absolutely must act protected.
Looking to Fade Rallies
As long as that is going to be the case, this remains a “fade the rally” type of situation, and therefore you should look at it as such. The size of the candlestick is probably worth paying attention to, but perhaps more importantly, the fact that we close that the very bottom of the range. That almost always means that you get some type of follow-through, because these candlesticks do not happen in a vacuum. The market continues to struggle, and I do think that he is going to be the way forward. I have no interest in trying to get long at the NASDAQ 100 or any other stock index at the moment, because I think most of them have quite a bit farther to fall based upon just how bad the economic situation seems to be getting. Given enough time, I think we bus to the bottom, but we’ve got some work to get there.
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