The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market bounced a bit during the trading session on Thursday, gaining over 2%. By doing so, it looks as if the market is trying to get back to the $85 level, which is an area where we would see a bit of “market memory” come into the picture as it was in previous support.
At this point, I am looking for signs of exhaustion that I can take advantage of, as there has been a significant breakdown. Ultimately, you should also pay close attention to the 50-Day EMA breaking below the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross.” This is a longer-term signal that a lot of people will be paying attention to from a longer-term standpoint, and it’s more likely than not going to be a situation where you are fading signs of exhaustion.
Alternately, if we were to break down below the bottom of the last 48 hours, the market is likely to go down to the $80 level. The $80 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we should see a lot of noise. Even if we do rally from here, I do think that eventually, we get down to that region.
Volatility Ahead
- On a rally that breaks above the $85 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $90 level, which is where the market has fallen from over the last several days. After that, then we could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, maybe even the 200-Day EMA.
- It’s not until we break through all of that that I would become bullish on oil, but right now I think all we are seeing is a bounce from an oversold condition.
- This happens from time to time, and if we continue to worry about the idea of demand, it more likely than not will be a nice selling opportunity.
Unless we somehow avoid a global recession, or if we get some type of major shakeup due to the Russian sanctions, it’s almost impossible to imagine that oil takes off to the outside as it had done previously. Ultimately, this is the market that continues to be volatile, so make sure you keep your position size reasonable and this type of environment.
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