- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied to reach the $89 level on Friday, as we continue to dance around the 50-Day EMA.
- The market will more likely than not continue to hang around in the same area, as we have seen the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA both flatten out, showing just how little, we have in the way of directionality.
Looking at the start, it’s obvious that we continue to see more of a sideways behavior, and thereby I think we’ve got a serious problem trying to trade for a longer-term move. I think short-term range-bound market conditions will continue to be favored, so with that being the case I think we got to be able to take short-term trades and be able to take profits rather quickly. However, if we were to break out of this little area, we may have bigger moves just ahead.
The Market is Slowing Down
If we can break above the $95 level, that could kick off a longer-term uptrend, sending this market all the way to $100 initially, and then perhaps even as high as $120 over the longer term. On the other hand, if we were determined to break down from here, then it’s possible that we could see the $85 level taken out, sending this market down to the $80 level, possibly down even lower than that.
The best thing you can do is probably keep your position size reasonable, as we have a lot of different things affecting the oil markets, as people are trying to figure out whether the lack of supply is going to be an issue, or if it’s going to be a lack of demand. After all, it looks like we are slowing down globally, so the demand for oil may drop, but you should also keep in mind that OPEC recently cut 2 million barrels per day, and the physical market has been struggling for a while as well. In other words, there are plenty of conflicting factors in this market to keep things difficult. Until we see some type of clarity, I think you will have to continue to look at this as a noisy behavior-driven market, and we just don’t have any real clarity at this point. I could make a little bit of an argument for basing pattern, but it is early to call that.
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