- You can see the euro initially did try to rally during the trading session on Monday but fell.
- And now looks as if it is threatening the 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA is a major technical indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.
- With that being the case, I think you've got the a situation where market participants will be looking at 1.0750 as an area where the market has recently seen a swing low.
- So, I do think that is a major area of support. If we were to break down below it, then it opens up a move down to the 1.05 level.
On the other hand, if we turn around the 50 day EMA opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.0920 level and then eventually the 1.10 level. The euro is going to be very noisy when it comes to this week because we have the FOMC meeting and with that being the case that will have a lot of volatility coming into the market with the press conference more than anything else moving the markets unless of course the Federal Reserve decides that they are going to change monetary policy. It's not really expected, and the Federal Reserve has shown itself to not want to spook the markets anymore. So, with that being the case I think it will be however the market reads the noise coming out of the press conference and whatever statement Powell says.
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As Things Are Now…
As things stand right now, we are still very much in this larger consolidation area between 1.0750 on the bottom and 1.10 on the top approaching the bottom. So, I do think we probably are getting close to seeing value hunters coming into the market, but I like the idea of fading signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies. That being said, the next 48 hours might be somewhat quiet, unless of course the market sniffs out the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to be tighter than anticipated. It’s difficult, because quite frankly the markets seem to be running on the latest rumor more than anything else at the moment. I’ll be paying close attention to the 1.0750 level as it should be a crucial area of confluence.
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