Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0780.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0860.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0835 and a take-profit at 1.0900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0780.
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend on Wednesday morning ahead of the upcoming US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports. It retreated to 1.0820, a few points below this week’s high of 1.0865.
US GDP and PCE reports
The EUR/USD exchange rate drifted downwards after the important economic numbers from Europe. A report by the Spanish statistics agency showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 0.4% to 0.8%, higher than the median estimate of 0.6%. It jumped from 2.8% to 3.2% on a YoY basis.
A separate report by the Eurostat revealed that consumer confidence improved slightly to minus 14.9 in March. European consumers are concerned about the bloc’s inflation and high-interest rates. The ECB has pushed rates to the highest level on record.
The next important reports will be the upcoming German retail sales and jobs numbers. Economists expect the data to reveal that retail sales rose by 0.4% in February after falling by 0.4% in the previous month.
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The EUR/USD pair will also react to the final estimate of Q4 GDP report. The last report showed that the economy expanded by 3.2% in the fourth quarter after growing by 4.9% in the previous quarter. This being the third estimate, its impact on the US dollar and the bond market will be muted.
The most important data will come out on Friday when the US publishes its PCE report. The PCE is the inflation figure that the Fed puts most of its emphasis on. As such, a higher figure will mean that the Fed will have more room to hold rates higher for longer.
In its meeting last week, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. It also pointed to three rate cuts later this year.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair drifted downwards, erasing most of the gains it made on Monday. It dived to a low of 1.0820 on Thursday morning, moving below the lower side of Andrew’s pitchfork tool. The pair retreated below the 50-period moving average while the Chaikin Oscillator rose to the neutral point of zero.
The EUR/USD pair has dropped below the Woodie pivot point at 1.0840. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the initial support level to watch being at 1.0800, its lowest level last week. A drop below that level will see it crash to the support at 1.0750.
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