USD/PKR Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Grind Against Pakistani Rupee

• The US dollar has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Friday, but quite frankly this is a heavily manipulated currency pair and therefore you cannot read too much into it.
• At this point in time, the market does continue to see the US dollar drift lower overall, but it takes quite some time for games to appear.

Keep in mind that the Pakistani rupee is an emerging market currency, therefore all things being equal, it will move a lot based on risk appetite. As the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates later this year, we have seen some emerging market currencies do a little bit better, although the Pakistani rupee is heavily influenced by the Pakistani central bank. In other words, it doesn’t flow very freely, and therefore the gentle grind lower is probably what you would expect.

Longer-term investment

At best, this would be a longer-term investment, because you’re not going to get massive daily gain. The 200-Day EMA currently sits right around the 279 level and will offer resistance on short-term rallies. On the downside, the 270 level is more likely than not going to be the target, but at this rate, that could be a situation where we don’t get there for a couple of months.

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When you trade to spare, you were not necessarily looking for a big move suddenly, but what you are looking for is to take advantage of any interest-rate differential or slow grinding trend. That being said, if we get a sudden “risk off market” around the world, currencies like the Pakistani rupee will get absolutely smoked. If you can find a broker that offers this currency pair, it does tend to be very reliable and stable, and it most certainly trends for quite some time.

In general, the day-to-day noise will be very choppy and difficult, but if you can’t just simply buy-and-hold or selling hold, you should be avoiding this market, due to the fact that the market is not one that moves rapidly unless there are concerns about panic. At this point, I think we go lower but I think it will be moving at the speed of cattle.

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