- It's been the same story across the forex world today as the Swiss franc has strengthened quite drastically.
- But I look at this as a buying opportunity.
- I am willing to get long of the euro against the franc in this region. Recognizing that we are in the midst of a major trend change.
At least that's what it looks like. So I need to see a little bit of a bounce, but I'm willing to take on that momentum to the upside. I have no interest in shorting this pair. The interest rate differential keeps me from doing that. I think there is more of a risk to the upside than the down due to the fact that what happens if the Swiss National Bank decides to, continue to cut or perhaps even more surprising, the ECB actually holds interest rates steady in June.
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ECB could hold
I think everybody's getting ahead of their skis here because there are signs that they are rethinking that. So with that being the case, I think that as soon as we turn around and start bouncing in the upward trajectory, I will be a buyer. The 50 day EMA sits just below. And of course, we have the 0.97 level offering support as well.
After that we have the 200 day EMA. I do believe we continue to go higher. I do believe the Swiss franc continues to get beaten up by other currencies, and the euro won't be any different than the other ones. Because of this, I’m using this EUR/CHF pair has not only a trading vehicle, but also a sign as to where the Swiss franc may go against multiple other currencies, as this is the biggest measuring stick of the Swiss franc in general. Furthermore, it’s also the pair that the Swiss National Bank pay the most attention to, and therefore gives you an idea as to whether or not there could be any potential intervention. At this point, it looks like the Swiss are perfectly happy to see a depreciating Swiss franc over the longer term.
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