- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very choppy and sideways during the month of May, but it looks toward the end of the month that we are ready to start taking off to the upside.
- This does make a certain amount of sense due to the fact that this time of year is typically bullish for crude oil.
Technical Analysis
What I find interesting is that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is held as support, and we are currently bouncing around the 50-Week moving average EMA. Ultimately, it looks like the $80 level has A little bit of a lid on the market, but if we can break above there then it’s likely that crude oil goes looking to the $85 level eventually.
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Cyclically speaking, we are at the beginning of the busy season for crude oil, and of course we have plenty of geopolitical factors out there that could continue to push this market higher. Because of this, I think you have a situation where most of June will simply be buying the dips, or if you are a little bit more of a swing trader, you are probably aiming for the $85 level.
While I do not know if we will reach the $85 level during the month of June, I do think it will happen sometime this summer. As long as you keep your position size reasonable, it will more likely than not be a market that you can hang onto. Short-term “buy on the dips” opportunities will almost certainly appear, and I do think that a lot of people will take advantage of them. This is mainly due to the fact that we have seen such resiliency during the month of May that it’s obviously a market that a lot of players out there think are going to go higher, so it does become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
With all of this, I am bullish, but I also recognize that crude oil can be very noisy. Position sizing, and of course paying attention to headlights coming out of the Middle East could be 2 of your biggest tools for the next month or so. Regardless, I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon, at least not until we get through the summer season.
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