WTI Crude Oil Monthly Forecast: July 2024

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been rather bullish during most of the month of June, and now it looks as if we are in the midst of testing a major resistance barrier.
• When I zoom out on the weekly chart, I can make an argument for a somewhat symmetrical triangle, suggesting that we really don’t know which direction this market breaks over the longer term.
• If and when it does, and I think it’s probably going to be sooner rather than later, we should make a nice move.

Keep in mind that there is a lot out there moving the oil market, not the least of which will be geopolitics. After all, we have a hot war in the Middle East, which of course is always going to cause quite a bit of noise in the crude oil markets. Furthermore, it is cyclically a bullish time of year, as demand for oil during travel season typically takes off. Because of this, think you have got a situation where there is somewhat limited downward pressure in this market.

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It is worth noting that the 50-We EMA is sitting near the $79 level, and it is relatively sideways at this point. The market is likely to continue to see a lot of action around that area, but the fact that the 50-We EMA is sideways, it suggests that perhaps the market is very neutral, just as the triangle does. However, I think this is a situation where if we do break to the upside, I think the market goes looking to the $85 level. After that, then we could be looking at the $90 level. On the downside, we could see the $75 level be targeted, followed by the uptrend line underneath.

Keep in mind that volatility will continue to be a feature of this market, and I think he continues to see a lot of volatility from a day-to-day basis, but I do think that short-term pullbacks will more likely than not offer buying opportunities to show bullish pressure and to show that the market will continue to see plenty of value hunters every time we get an opportunity to pick up “cheap oil.”

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