- The British Pound has been very volatile against the Swiss Franc as of late, but it looks like Wednesday is going to be a little bit of a breather just waiting to happen.
- That makes quite a bit of sense considering that traders will continue to look at the interest rate differential as a major driver and the 50-day EMA above does offer a little bit of technical resistance that people would be paying close attention to.
If we can break above that, then it opens up the possibility of this pair traveling to the 1.1450 level, an area that we had seen pretty significant selling pressure previously. In that environment and world, I think that we eventually break out and go look into the 1.15 level.
Remember, the interest rate differential heavily favors the British pound, so you do get paid to hang on to this position over the longer term. And that's something that I think a lot of traders really need to focus on, especially in an environment where central bank speculation is all over the place. On a pullback from here, and we very well could get one, I expect to see the 1.13 level offer support right along with the 200-day EMA.
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200 Day EMA
The 200 day EMA is an indicator that a lot of longer term traders pay close attention to as well. So, I suspect that we have a scenario where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of buying dips and taking advantage of the end of day swap.
I have no interest in shorting this GBP/CHF currency market. I think it will stay strong for the foreseeable future. This would be especially true as traders are trying to sort out what's happening in the European Union, as it has an outsized effect on the Swiss economy due to the fact that the Swiss send 85 percent of their exports into the EU.
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