- The US dollar initially pulled back slightly against the Swiss franc during early trading on Tuesday.
- But as we continue to dance around the 200 day EMA, there is a lot of volatility.
- I think ultimately this is a situation where the market is trying to break out to the upside. And if we could go look to the 50 day EMA, we could then challenge the 0.90 level.
The 0.90 level is an area that previously had been support. So, I think a certain amount of market memory comes into the picture at that point. Clearing that level would be a very strong sign. If you look at the most recent swing from the very low, you can draw a Fibonacci retracement down to the 38.2% Fibonacci level that it looks like we are trying to hold.
Interest Rate Differential Continues to Matter
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All things being equal, I think a lot of this comes down to the interest rate differential, and it is quite wide, with the Swiss National Bank cutting rates previously and the Federal Reserve looking very unlikely to do so easily or for very much between now and the end of the year. The Swiss franc, of course, is a safety currency, but then again, so is the US dollar. The biggest thing that tends to move this pair is whether or not money's fleeing Europe hand over fist tends to find its way into Switzerland.
So, it's kind of a knock-on effect, if you will. Nonetheless, the technical analysis does look like it's going to be choppy, but positive. If we were to break down below the 0.8850 level, then it's possible that we could drop down to the 0.87 level. But right now, I am still betting on the upside, collecting swaps at the end of each day. It's probably worth noting that we did have a significant sell off a few weeks ago, so that's going to be one of the big issues we have to deal with.
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