- In today's analysis of the AUD/JPY it's obvious that we still have plenty of bullish pressure.
- We are threatening the ¥109 level, and it looks like there's not much to stop this market from going higher.
- We are overextended though, so you need to be very cautious at this point in time.
- With this, you need to not get aggressive and over levered.
But I look at this market as one that is very likely going to continue to find plenty of buyers on each and every dip. We recently did consolidate a little bit, but it was just a few trading sessions and bounced short term pullbacks. At this point in time, we'll see a bit of support at the ¥108.50 level, and then again down at the ¥105 level.
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The 50-Day EMA and its Importance
The 50 day EMA is closer to the ¥105 level as well, and it is rising quite significantly. In general, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, but it doesn't make a lot of sense that you would be interested in owning the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen as the interest rate differential will continue to favor the trader who holds it.
The swap should continue to be very positive. The Bank of Japan has always had no interest whatsoever in trying to change the interest rate policy due to the fact that the debt is so high in Japan. And of course, that means that the central bank is essentially stuck with what it's going to do. The AUD/JPY market is completely overstretched, like I said, but at this point in time, there's only one way to trade this market, and that is to buy each and every pullback as we go forward. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market, as it is far too strong.
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