- In my daily Euro/US dollar analysis, it's hard not to notice that we are essentially sitting still.
- It looks like the 1.08 level will continue to be a bit of a magnet for price.
- And it's worth noting that if you go back two years, you can see that most of the action is centered around large round figures.
So, for example, the fact that we are at the 1.08 level and bouncing around should not be a huge surprise. We've previously seen the 1.07 level and the 1.09 level both be rather important. So, I think we're just killing time. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that it's summer and this is typically a low liquidity or at least low volatility time of year and really there's nothing to do.
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Moving Average Suggest Nothingness
Looking at the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators, you can see they are essentially flat and lost. So, with this, I think we remain very range bound, and it would not surprise me at all to see this EUR/USD market end up right about where we are by the end of the week. There are a couple of announcements that we will have to pay attention to in the form of the consumer price index and the producer's price index in America at the end of the week.
That could cause some noise, but really, I don't see this market moving more than about 100 pips on both of those announcements combined, because it seems like there's always a narrative to bring things back the other way. The federal reserve is nowhere near cutting interest rates. At least not from what I see, but they are at least acknowledging that they will have to someday and that might be enough to get people excited, but at the same time, the ECB has already cut raids once and are more likely than not going to do so again rather soon. In other words, this is a very ambivalent and neutral pair.
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