- I continue to see that the GBP/CHF pair is likely to continue to see buyers coming into the market.
- In fact, we are so strong at this point I think it is probably only a matter of time before the British pound breaks out to a fresh, new high, with the 1.1675 level being broken.
- At that point, I think that the British pound could very well go looking to the 1.20 CHF level above.
- Granted, this is a longer term outlook on my end, but keep in mind that you get paid at the end of every session to take advantage of the uptrend.
Short-term pullbacks
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Short-term pullbacks will continue to be a major buying opportunity, and the 1.15 level underneath I think will start to ask questions of any type of selloff. The 50-Day EMA comes into the picture, and I think that of course is something worth paying attention to as well. We might be a little overextended at this point in time, but anyway, I think that the market is still one that you cannot short. Even if you told me that the British pound was going to drop on Monday, I would have no interest whatsoever in trying to sell this pair. I think at this point in time, it’s just a matter of trying to find “cheap British pounds” going forward.
Interest rate differential will continue to be the major driver, but quite frankly keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank has already cut its rates, so that something that the Bank of England still holds over its head. I think given enough time, this is a market that will continue to be noisy, yet very bullish overall. The size of the candlestick is of course a major factor as well, and since the candlestick is rather strong, that tells me we probably get a little bit of follow through given enough time. It has been a sharp rally, but at this point there’s no reason whatsoever to own the Swiss franc.
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