- It’s hard not to notice that the British pound looks as if it is trying to form some type of base against the Swiss franc at this point.
- It’s also worth noting that the pair is sitting just above the 50-Day EMA indicator, which of course is followed quite closely by technical traders.
- Furthermore, it’s also worth noting that we are in an area that previously has been very noisy so it’ll be interesting to see if we can continue to see momentum in this pair to send the British pound higher.
If we can break above the high of the last couple of candlesticks, then I think the market is likely to go looking to the 1.16 level. Ultimately, this is a market that if we can break above the recent swing high, we could see the British pound really take off against the Swiss franc, which of course is a low yielding currency, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where the interest rate differential could continue to drive this pair higher. Quite frankly, I don’t have any interest in trying to sell this market, because it is so fundamentally strong over the longer term.
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Point of Inflection
I believe that we are at a significant point of inflection, as recapturing the 1.15 level could very well bring in enough momentum to send this market back to the swing high above. Furthermore, if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, we could see this pair drop quite drastically, perhaps down to the 200-Day EMA. Either way, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, and therefore I think you also have to recognize the fact that you need to be very cautious with your position sizing.
With that being said, the market continues to see a lot of volatility, and therefore you do need to be cautious with your position sizing like a said, but also recognize that once the trade starts to work in your favor, you need to be able to add to a winning trade. Not only will you get the benefits of price appreciation, but you will also start to build up the overall interest rate differential payments at the end of each session. I am bullish overall.
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