- The Nikkei 225 initially rally during the early hours on Tuesday, but I can see that this is an asset that might be running out of momentum.
- It’s worth noting that the ¥37,750 level is an area that has been important more than once. All things being equal, I’m also paying attention to the 50-Day EMA just above there, and the fact that it looks like we are trying to form a bit of a shooting star suggest that perhaps the market isn’t really sure what to do.
It’s also worth noting that this is a market that continues to be focusing on the idea of whether or not the carry trade is still in effect. After all, we recently seen the Japanese yen strengthen due to the unwinding of the carry trade, and that makes Japanese exports much more expensive. Remember, the Nikkei 225 it is comprised of mainly exporters, so it has a direct correlation to the currency market.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis in this market suggests that we are going to struggle in this general vicinity, as the Stochastic Oscillator has crossed into the overbought condition, just as we approach that crucial 50-Day EMA above. In other words, there are a lot of things going on in the same general vicinity that could come into the picture to push this market back down. We have seen a massive bounce to this region, and now it looks like we are starting to struggle a bit to maintain the massive amount of momentum that we had enjoyed. That being said, if we were to break above the 50-Day EMA, then we could go looking to the ¥40,750 level, an area that’s been important more than once.
All that being said, the market has been so overdone in both directions that it’s not overly surprising that we are hanging out in this area. I do think that you will have to pay close attention to the Japanese yen, because if it starts to strengthen too much, that will almost certainly put downward pressure on this market. Alternatively, we could just simply go sideways and work off some of the momentum, allowing the market to “reset itself.”
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