- The US dollar has fallen against the Chinese yuan during the trading session on Thursday to reach the 7.08 level, an area that's been important multiple times.
- It is worth noting that the GDP numbers in America are a little hotter than anticipated.
- Now on Friday, we will get the core PCE numbers, which of course is the Federal Reserve's favorite way to measure inflation.
With that being the case, I think you've got a situation where the market could bump from here. But ultimately, I think the bounce is probably more or less going to be of the sideways type in the sense that I don't think we are going to see massive moves.
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If We Rally
If we do rally from here, I suspect that the 7.18 level will be a bit difficult to overcome. And then after that, you could see a move to the 7.30 level. A breakdown below the 7.08 level almost certainly opens up a move down to 7.00, which of course has a lot of psychology attached to it. Keep in mind, this is essentially a play on the global growth situation.
So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think the GDP in America coming out a little hotter than anticipated actually somewhat helps the Chinese yuan, because the idea is, of course, that Americans will be buying more Chinese things. However, if the PCE number comes out hotter than anticipated, it means that the Federal Reserve will have to stay tighter for longer, and that might work in favor of the greenback. If you want to know where risk sentiment is going, this pair is quite often one of the best to watch.
Keep in mind that this pair is not necessarily free-floating all of the time, and therefore you need to be cognizant of the pressures that come from the Chinese central bank. Having said that, the market is one that certainly looks like it’s ready to find some type of trade set up.
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