- In my daily analysis of exotic currencies, the US dollar is very interesting to follow against the Malaysian ringgit as Malaysia, is pretty far out there when it comes to risks, appetite, spectrum.
- I think it's worth noting that we are starting to turn things around as the central bankers are speaking at Jackson Hole over the next two days, and it looks like interest rate cuts may not be as swift as once thought.
The Next Two Days Could be Important
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If that's going to truly be the case, and we'll know more over the next day or two, I think you've got a situation where you could see a massive shot higher at this point, and therefore, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a place to run to if the dollar really starts to take off. You could see a move all the way back to the 4.65 level. If not, then we do have further to go, perhaps a 4.30 level. But when you look at the Relative Strength Index, it is clearly oversold and has been for a while, I think at this point in time, at the very least, this market needs to chop back and forth. But if we see the US dollar really start to pummel some of the other currencies around the world,
This will be one of the first places I will look for because it could very well be a big mover. With that, I'm more or less just observing right now, but again, if I see the US dollar really take off, especially against other emerging market currencies like the South African Rand, Chinese Yuan, etc., then I might put a position on here. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out, but the market does tend to correct from overdone conditions, as exuberance takes over and has people not thinking clearly.
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