- This is a trade or a market I should say that is very difficult to trade.
- This is because it is heavily influenced by the Pakistani central bank while the Federal Reserve doesn't really care what the interest rate is to the Pakistani rupee.
- This is in the realm of commercials, meaning that most of the trade actually happens in the futures market, with commercial companies dealing with apparel makers in Pakistan can to hedge.
Between that and the obvious central bank reference rates manipulation, there are some levels worth paying attention to. Underneath we have 277.50, while at the same time we have the 279.50 level offering resistance. Now I do think that sooner or later the central bank in Pakistan will have to move and this chart will be worth following because even if you are not able to trade the Pakistani rupee this could give you a bit of a heads up as to how the Indian rupee may trade or perhaps even the Chinese yuan.
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This market certainly could fall below the 275 rupee level. And that would show massive us dollar weakness. Quite frankly, I think the federal reserve would have to really mess things up to make that happen though. And it's more likely than not to be more apt to rise as traders run from risk appetite. If we do break out to the upside, the 290 rupee level would be a potential target. But at this point, you have a scenario where you are trading in a very tight range, but it is possible to scout this market back and forth in the futures markets.
That being said, you need to be very cautious with any type of position size that you put in this market. After all, you may find yourself not being able to break out of the trade if the Pakistani central bank does in fact decide to move things. However, at this point in time with small enough positions you can go back and forth and perhaps build up a little bit in the way of profit.
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