- In my daily analysis of minor currency pairs, the first thing I notice in the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc is that we continue to dance around between two major moving averages.
- Above, we have the 200-day EMA, which of course attracts a lot of attention from longer-term traders.
- On the other hand, the market breaking above there could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.59 level.
- That being said, underneath we have a massive amount of support in the form of the 50-day EMA which is closer to the 0.5775 level.
I think as long as we're in this area the market does hang on to the idea of potential risk-taking because quite frankly the Australian dollar is a risk-on currency, while the Swiss franc is considered to be a safety currency. This is almost certainly going to be driven by risk appetite around the world, and therefore I think you've got a scenario where traders will be very cautious about the idea of whether or not stock exchanges continue to rally, whether or not gold rises or falls, and in a roundabout way, perhaps the US dollar what it does as it is considered to be a safety currency as well.
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A Significant W Pattern
In general, this is a market that seems to be forming a significant W pattern and is trying to break out to the upside. The so-called measured move could be for a move all the way up to the 0.60 level based on that W pattern. That of course would be a very strong move in the risk on flavor.
Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is also pushed around by the Asian economy, and the overall risk appetite of traders when it comes to global growth, and of course with the Swiss franc being a bit of a safety currency, this pair could be a proxy for what to do with many other markets as well.
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