- During the month of September, we have seen a lot of ugliness when it comes to crude oil behavior, as the markets have fallen rather significantly.
- All things being equal, there are a lot of things to think about when it comes down to sorting out what’s going on in the oil market.
- After all, we have a lot of issues when it comes to global growth at the moment, and that of course has a major amount of influence on what happens next.
Technical Analysis
Looking at the technical analysis in this market, it’s worth noting that we are fairly close to the bottom of the 2 year range, near the $63.50 level. This is an area that continues to be important, and therefore I think you need to watch what happens if and when we get there. I do believe that it is probably only a matter of time before we see buyers jumping into the market, perhaps trying to find “cheap oil.” However, this assumes that there will be enough momentum in the market, and of course expectations of global growth to drive up the idea of demand. Remember, crude oil is the “lifeblood” of the global economy.
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Going back to the technical analysis, the Stochastic Oscillator is at very low levels in trying to cross, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think a bounce makes more sense than not, but it is worth noting that if we were to break down below the $63 level, though crude oil market could take a deep dive to lower levels, perhaps reaching down to the $60 level.
On a more positive note, if we can break above the $72.50 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the $75 level, perhaps even followed by the $80 level if we get a certain amount of support and momentum. This would simply be a continuation of the overall consolidation that we had seen over the last couple of years, and I do think that is the more likely of scenarios, but if we do see a major “risk off scenario” globally, crude oil will not be able to escape the selling pressure that so many other markets will find themselves dealing with.
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