Potential signal:
- I am a buyer if this pair above the 21.15 MXN level on a daily close, with a stop at the 21.08 level.
- I would be aiming for a move to the 22.02 level.
- We have bounced from a fairly significant support level.
- The 21.15 MXN level is one that has been important a couple of times, and therefore the market is going to continue to see a lot of volatility.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a situation where traders are coming back into the picture and trying to pick up a bit of value, as it makes a lot of sense that the risk appetite around the world receives a bit. If that’s going to be the case, then the Mexican peso of course is a place that people will not be looking to get involved in.
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Ultimately, this is a market that has a lot of support underneath it anyway, so I think it makes sense that we have seen this market turn around and show signs of life. If we can break above the 21.65 level on a daily close, then it’s likely that the market will continue to see a lot of upward pressure, as it is an area that has been very difficult to break above over the last couple of days.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair of course is very bullish, as the 21.15 level has been very supportive, so as long as we can stay above there, I think you have a situation where buyers are probably going to continue to look at this as a “buy on the dip” market. Furthermore, we also have the 50 Day EMA sitting near the 21.04 level, which is rising and heading toward that region as well.
On the upside, we have the 22.25 level as a major ceiling, which of course is a rather impressive ceiling considering what we had seen multiple times. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will see a lot of trouble in that area. That being said, I do think this is a market that will continue to move up and down with risk appetite as the euro is considered to be much safer than the Mexican peso and other emerging market currencies.
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