- The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to look at the 0.84 level, which is a large round psychologically significant trigger.
- The market is likely to continue to see this as a floor in the market, as it is an area where people have paid close attention to support previously.
- If we can turn around and rally from here, I would pay close attention to the 0.8550 level, which is a psychologically important figure, but it's also the most recent rally point. If we can break above there, then the market could go looking to the 50 day EMA.
On a Breakdown
If we were to break down below the lows of the trading session on Friday, that would be a very negative sign for the US dollar. Keep in mind that the jobs report came out weaker than anticipated, perhaps the one currency could continue to see a lot of a run towards safety and the Swiss franc is a safety currency. So, this is an interesting pair to watch.
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I think overall, you've got a situation where we are trying to bottom out, but I don't know if we have yet the neutral candlestick. The fact that we recovered some of that massive selling is a good sign. We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out. The bond market, of course, will have its part to play.
Yields continue to drop as people rush towards that market. It obviously helps the dollar because well the bonds in the United States are based in US dollars so that might be part of what we're seeing play out here as well. The question now is are we at a long-term inflection point as it has been important going back to the end of 2023 or are we about to see something truly ominous happen?
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