- The US dollar initially rallied a bit during the early hours on Wednesday against the Russian ruble, but it faces a pretty significant resistance barrier just above.
- Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the Wednesday session features the federal open market committee, interest rate decision, interest rate statement, and press conference.
Any of these three things could have a massive influence on what happens with the greenback next. And then by extension, what happens here. Keep in mind that the Russian ruble is heavily attached to the crude oil market. So that has a certain amount of play as well. But at this point in time, from a technical analysis standpoint, it looks like we are getting a little tired.
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The stochastic oscillator is starting to reach the overbought condition and therefore the fact that we pulled back a bit is not a huge surprise. If the market were to break above the 94 ruble level, then I think the US dollar could really take off, perhaps reaching toward to 100. On the other hand, if we pull back from here than the 200 day EMA presently near the 88.70 level is likely to be support.
From a Longer-Term Perspective
Looking at the chart from a longer term perspective, it looks like we just went through a major bottoming pattern, but we haven't broken out yet. So, at this point in time, you more or less have to default to the idea of it still being range bound and therefore overbought. Again though, if we break the 94 rubles level, then we can begin to have the discussion that the US dollar is going higher. At this point, I would expect the market to really take off in favor of the US dollar, and it would be a massive “risk off” signal, and could be a sign that the market is going to start to run toward safer assets, such as US Treasuries, etc.
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