- The Euro has shown itself to be somewhat bullish during the trading session on Friday, and at this point in time it looks like we are simply going back and forth in the same range bound area that we had been in.
- The 0.93 level underneath has been support, while the 0.95 level above has been significant resistance.
It's also worth paying close attention to the 50 day EMA, which sits just above the candlestick for the day. All things being equal, I do think this is a market that we continue to buy dips in, which makes a certain amount of sense that the Swiss Franc is having trouble strengthening at this point, because from a technical analysis standpoint, the 0.93 level has been important multiple times.
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The Swiss National Bank
Furthermore, keep in mind this is a pair that the Swiss National Bank watches very closely, and it really wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of stealth intervention near the 0.93 level. And in fact, that might be part of what has kept the market from breaking down. When you look at the moving average convergence divergence indicator, there is a bit of a turnaround in momentum and not quite divergence, but something somewhat close to it, and therefore it does suggest that a turnaround might be imminent.
If we have more of a risk on type of situation, then this pair will take off. And I do believe that the 0.95 level being broken on a daily close is what a lot of traders will be paying attention to. In the short term, I think you buy on the dips and just simply trade the range that has been carved out for roughly the last three or four weeks. If we were to break down below the 0.93 level, then I think we reset and try to sort out where the Swiss finally lose their sense of humor when it comes to the strengthening Franc.
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