- The Euro initially rallied during the trading session on Monday, but it looks like it's going to continue to see a lot of issues around the 1.12 level, an area that's been important for some time.
- It might be worth watching whether or not we can break above the 1.1250 level, because if we can get beyond there, then things really start to take off to the upside.
That being said, it also looks very much like a range bound currency pair and that's not a huge surprise because what it does most of the time is it finds a tight range to trade in. At this point, if we were to drop, I suspect that the 1.11 level could be somewhat supported, but the real support is probably closer to the 1.10 level underneath just above the crucial 1.10 zero level, which of course has a lot of psychology attached to it.
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With this, I am more inclined to buy the dip in this market, taking advantage of value, but between the two central banks, both easy and monetary policy, I don't see a clear winner here. This could just be a measurement of risk appetite over the longer term we'll have to see.
Risk Appetite Going Forward
Obviously if people get concerned, they run towards the US dollar so that is something to keep in the back of your mind. On the other hand, if we see more “risk on” behavior then the euro should pick up. We are at an area that's been massive resistance extending bank a couple of years. So, it'll be interesting to see whether or not we can pick up the necessary momentum to finally break out. In the meantime, though, I suspect we just go back and forth. This is typical for this pair, as it ends up being choppy more often than not.
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