- Looking at the Hang Seng, it's straightforward from a technical analysis standpoint.
- We had gotten a bit far too aggressive to the upside and then sold off quite drastically and now we are hanging around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near the 19,800 level.
That in and of itself isn't extraordinary by any reach, but what I do find interesting is how we got here to begin with. Recently, there were a lot of hopes pinned on the idea that the Chinese would stimulate their economy rather aggressively to try to pick things up on the mainland. Now, granted, Hong Kong is its own thing, but it is highly interconnected obviously. That being said, the PBOC announced a rather mild form of stimulus, and we have seen the market just fall off of a cliff from there. The question now is whether or not we can hold the uptrend, and I define that as the 50-day EMA at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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If We Break Lower
In my experience, if you break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, generally you're going to retrace the entire move or something close to it. So it is because of this that I'm watching this area very closely. The last couple of days have been a bit of consolidation, and I think we're just simply sitting on the sidelines right now trying to determine where we're going next. If we can break above the 20,600 level, then I think it shows that we are more likely than not to continue to go higher. But if we do break down below that crucial 19,800 level, I think the 50 day EMA gets targeted rather quickly. This is a market that you need to be watching because it gives you an idea as to what risk appetite is doing, even if you don't trade it. But if you do want to dip your toes in the water, pay attention to the highs of the last couple of days and that crucial 19,800 level could give you a short-term trade.
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