- my daily analysis of the natural gas markets, the first thing that I see is that we are approaching an area that previously had been resistant.
- Furthermore, we also have the 50 Day EMA coming into the picture, and therefore I think it has a certain amount of support just waiting to happen, so I think this is a situation where we are getting closer to the bottom than not.
- although we don’t have any signs on the chart yet to suggest that it’s time to start buying.
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Fundamental Reasoning
The fundamental reasoning for higher natural gas prices this time of year makes quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that we have more demand coming out of the northeastern United States over the next couple of months. After all, it is winter, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where traders are looking at this as a commodity that will continue to see plenty of demand, but we also have to keep an eye on the fact that some of the recent gains were due to the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Because of this, we have a situation where some of the bullish pressure initially was due to a very temporary set of circumstances.
That’s not to say that we don’t have plenty of reasons for natural gas to go higher over the next couple of months, but I think some of the so-called “hot money” has exited, and it makes a certain amount of sense that we would continue to see a little bit of negativity, but I believe that is somewhat limited at the moment.
As we head into the colder months, I anticipate that we will drift back toward the $3.00 level, possibly even the $3.15 level. That being said, if we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, then we might have a little bit deeper of a correction to reach down to the $2.50 level, where the 200 Day EMA comes into the picture and offers more stringent support from a technical analysis standpoint.
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