Potential Signal:
I’m a buyer of this pair if we can reach the 377.50 HUF level. I would have a stop loss at the 373 level, and would be aiming for the 382 HUF level.
- In my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, the USD/HUF pair has caught my attention, as we continue to see the 375.50 level offer significant resistance.
- The market did break above there initially, but it looks like there is a little bit of a pushback at this point.
- Ultimately, this is a pair that a lot of people play for longer-term moves, but you also have to accept the fact that this pair does tend to grind for long periods of time.
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All things being equal, this is a pair that I liked trading, but I also recognize that it’s not the most exciting one at times. However, the last couple of weeks have seen the US dollar spiked against almost everything, and of course the Hungarian forint isn’t going to be any different.
The Hungarian forint is a great way to play the Eastern European economy, which has its own issues at the moment, but I still believe that the longer term outlook for Eastern Europe is very strong.
Technical Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator continues to see a lot of bullish pressure, as we continue to hang out in the “overbought position.” That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked of this resistance barrier, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we have to make a bigger decision.
As things stand right now, I think we’ve got a situation where traders are trying to do everything they can to break out, and eventually we may. However, I would be surprised at all to see a little bit of a short-term pullback in order to find enough momentum to turn things around.
The 50 Day EMA is all the way down at the 364 HUF level and is rising. That being said, it’s very difficult to imagine a situation where we get all the way down there, but if we do then it might offer a bit of value in a situation that has been so overly bullish. That being said, there are also plenty of opportunities above.
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