- The US dollar continues to threaten the 20 Mexican peso level as we continue to see interest rates in America rise.
- Furthermore, we also have to take a look at the fact that risk appetite might be dipping a bit, and if that's the case, it makes a lot of sense that places like Mexico are less attractive.
- Keep in mind, there is significant interplay between these currencies as Mexico is now the top exporter to the US.
- If the US economy slows, it heavily impacts Mexico. Breaking above the recent swing high could push the exchange rate toward 21 pesos, but it may take time to reach that level.
This would be a major sign of strength for the US dollar in general, not just against the MXN itself.
Short-Term Pullbacks
Short-term pullbacks at this point in time could very well offer buying opportunities that people will be paying close attention to, especially near the 19.50 Mexican peso level, which is currently attracting the 50-day EMA.
Top Regulated Brokers
You can make an argument that this is a pretty significant ascending triangle that we are in the midst of, and if that's the case, the measured move is to about 21.5 Mexican pesos before it's all said and done. This could be a massive fight, but at this point in time, it is likely that we will see this happen if the economic conditions remain the same.
If the economy from a global standpoint starts to really slow down, the interest rate differential will not help the Mexican peso, and we will continue to see the US dollar attract a lot of inflows if for no other reason than for safety. I don't have any interest whatsoever in getting short of this market anytime soon, as the momentum is so strong at the moment.
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