Potential Signal:
- I would be a buyer of this pair at 4.375, with a stop loss of 4.30 underneath.
- The market target at that point in time I believe would be the 4.52 level.
During my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, the USD/MYR pair remains stagnant, as we are watching this pair trying to turn things around. The Malaysian ringgit has been like a steamroller for a lot of currencies, including the greenback most of the year. That being said, this is a market that has recently broken above the crucial 4.30 level, which is an area that has been important multiple times.
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It’s worth noting that we are just above the 50 Day EMA, and now find ourselves near the 4.3450 level. If we can continue to rally from here, this could be the beginning of something rather big as it would be a recovery in the greenback against a major emerging market currency. Keep in mind that Malaysia has had a rip roaring hot economy over the course of the last year, and that has been reflected in this currency pair.
Safety and Interest Rates
Keep in mind that the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, that might be part of what’s going on here. However, we also have interest rates in the United States rising, and that of course has an influence on FX markets in general. We have seen the US dollar strengthen against most currencies around the world, so of course the Malaysian Ringgit will not be any different. Ultimately, Malaysia is an upcoming economy, but when it comes to the idea of protecting wealth, the reality is that most traders will look to the US Treasury markets in order to do so. This of course means that traders need to buy US dollars in order to get involved in that market. This provides a natural lift for the greenback.
If we do turn around and fall from here, then we could see the 4.28 level offer a significant amount of support. If we were to break down below there, then the market could drop down to the 4.15 level. On the other hand, if we do continue to go higher, we could see this market go looking to the 4.50 level above.
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