- During my daily analysis of the AUD/USD pair, it’s obvious that the market has seen a lot of negative pressure when it comes to the AUD/USD pair, which of course is a measure of risk appetite, so it all comes together quite nicely.
- Furthermore, it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar has been strong against almost everything else, so the Australian dollar course won’t be any different.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the AUD/USD currency pair is a very negative thing, as the 50 Day EMA is likely to break down below the 200 Day EMA, which of course kicks off the so-called “death cross” that people often use it as a sign of an extraordinarily negative market. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to look at the interest rates in America also offering quite a bit of downward pressure on this market.
The 0.65 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that so far has held as resistance, but it will be interesting to see whether or not it continues to hold. If it does get broken to the upside, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 0.6650 level, where those previously mentioned moving averages currently hanging about.
On the other hand, if we were to fall from here, the market could then go down to the 0.6350 level, an area that has been significant support previously, and therefore think it should have a certain amount of “market memory” coming into the picture, offering up the possibility of a “hard floor” in the market. This should continue to be the case, but if we were for some reason to break down below that level, this market could fall apart.
Looking at the charts, it looks like every time we rally, you have to be looking at this through the prism of perhaps fading rallies and show signs of exhaustion, as has been the case for some time now. I don’t have any interest in trying to get long of this market quite yet, but I do think that the market will probably bounce in the short term.
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