- The Australian dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Thursday but has turned around to show signs of life.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to pay close attention to the 0.65 level as a major support level and an area that's a large round psychologically significant figure.
- So, it all comes together quite nicely for an area of both buying and selling.
With that being said, I think you've got a scenario that if we can break above the 0.6550 level, then we can go moving towards the 200 day EMA above a little bit over the 0.66 level. That would be something that would need to see a bit of US dollar selling around world, it wouldn't just be against the Australian dollar. And you can make an argument for this because we are toward the bottom of the consolidation for the year. And the stochastic oscillator is crossing over in the oversold region.
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On the Other Hand
On the other hand, if we can break down below the 0.6450 level, it's possible that we could drop down to the 0.64 level anything below there, then I think everything falls apart that probably sends the Australian dollar down to the 0.6250 level and you probably would have to look at this through the prism of the US dollar swallowing everything if we break down with that being said I think we're probably going to do a little bit more sideways than anything else. Keep in mind this market does tend to be somewhat choppy as of late and I don't see that changes anytime soon. All things being equal, this is a market that needs to see what the US dollar does against everything else in order to get a little bit of clarity. I do not believe that the next big move is based on the Australian dollar itself, rather it will be based on the greenback.
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