- The USD/RUB is trading near the 110.1900 ratio with swift fluctuations being displayed.
- Since the election of U.S President-elect Trump the Russian Ruble has lost almost 13% of its value.
- The volatility being displayed in the USD/RUB could be said to simply be correlating to the nervous broad Forex market, but the move has been too big compared to other currency pairs.
- The move higher in the USD/RUB is not a welcomed situation for Russia.
While Russian ministers may claim that the weaker Russian Ruble will help boost exports from the country, the negative is the possibility for inflation to suddenly spark in the nation. The potential for a shift in the global energy sector may be factoring into the loss of value, but the bullish climb in the USD/RUB is likely much more complex.
Resistance Levels Have Been Vulnerable
In the first week of September the USD/RUB was trading around the 85.0000 level, and a slow incremental climb higher has been evident. Yet, upon the election of Donald Trump the USD/RUB essentially has gone from the 97.0000 vicinity to the 110.0000 level. Yesterday’s highs for the USD/RUB touched the 114.9000 level momentarily. Russian ministers have said in the past twenty-four hours they will sell foreign currency to combat the situation, but their impetus and power might not be able to stop the bullish trend higher.
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The question for players in the USD/RUB is when stability will start to be seen and a tranquil price range emerge again. The USD/RUB has actually been quite a stable currency pair over the past two years and has correlated to the broad Forex market relatively well. The sudden amount of weakness in the Russian Ruble could mean the Russian Central Bank is trying to rebalance cash positions, but this information isn’t exactly transparent.
Near-Term USD/RUB Trading
Because of its ability to trade in a relatively related manner to the broad Forex market over the long-term the USD/RUB sudden surge of volatility is interesting. The fact that the move is occurring in the aftermath of the Trump election victory is also rather intriguing.
- Perhaps someone has evidence that could suggests the Russian Ruble has lost some ground due to internal concerns regarding large trading partners because economic policies on nations such as China and Iran could impact Russia, but that is conjecture.
- Traders of the USD/RUB as always are encouraged to find out as much as they can and not bet on the currency pair blindly.
- Strict risk management is needed and the volatility from the past few weeks may not be over yet.
USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 110.3000
Current Support: 109.2000
High Target: 113.1000
Low Target: 108.6000
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