Potential signal:
- I don’t have any interest in shorting this pair, but I might be willing to buy it near the 17.90 level, with a stop loss at the 17.70 level, aiming for the 18.30 level.
- On the other hand, if we break above the 18.40 level, then I would have a stop loss at the 18.15 level, aiming for the 19 level.
During my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, one of the first things I’ve noticed is that the US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session against the South African Rand. All things being equal, this is a market that has been consolidating for a while, and it’s worth noting that the USD/ZAR pair is showing a couple of very important levels that traders are bouncing around from.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is somewhat sideways as the 200 Day EMA is right in the middle of the consolidation and is relatively flat. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are trying to sort out whether or not we can find some type of momentum. The 18 ZAR level is an area that’s been important multiple times in both directions, and recently has offered a bit of support as every time we pull back just a bit, we have bounced from there multiple times. The candlestick for the trading session on Thursday is a little lackluster, but in all fairness, it is Thanksgiving in the United States, which is worth paying attention to as it gets rid of the lot of the liquidity.
Underneath all of the support near the 18 ZAR level, we have the 50 Day EMA near the 17.80 ZAR level. As the 50 Day EMA rises from here, then it’s possible that we could see this market go looking toward the bottom of the consolidation to bring in a little bit of buying pressure as well. On the upside, the 18.40 ZAR level is a major resistance barrier, and if we can break above there then I think the market really starts to take off and we probably get to see a little bit more FOMO trading. In that scenario, I suspect that we have a situation where the US dollar starts to rally against almost everything.
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