- The daily analysis of the Euro at this point remains negative overall, and in the EUR/USD pair, I see this market as hanging around the 1.05 level, so this is a market that is going to continue to pay close attention to the area as a magnet for price in general.
- This market has been bouncing around in the same area for a minute, and I think we are simply waiting for the Federal Reserve on Thursday.
The Federal Reserve meeting is expected to present a 25 basis point cut, but the real action will be the press conference and the statement, and what they make traders think the Fed will do going forward. The January meeting is expected to be a “wait and see approach”, so this is going to keep the US dollar strong against many other currencies, but the Euro will be especially weak, as the French had their debt downgraded yet again over the weekend.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis the EUR/USD currency pair is of course negative from a longer-term standpoint, but recently has been a somewhat neutral situation. The market seems to have a lot of resistance near the 1.06 level, and as a result, I am a seller of signs of exhaustion after rallies, especially near that level. If the market were to fall from here, the 1.04 level should be a support level. Anything below there could bring in another 50 pip drop. Anything below there would be a wipeout. The Thursday meeting reaction will be crucial to tell us where we are going in the future, but between now and then I suspect we see more or less a sideways market.
This market continues to be a sideways one, and I think we have a situation where short-term traders are going to be attracted to this situation, as it has been somewhat predictable for traders to participate in a rangebound environment.
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