- The euro initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday but has turned around to show signs of negativity.
- But ultimately this is a market that I think is just killing time ahead of the FOMC meeting that occurs about three hours after I record this video.
- And as things stand right now, it looks like we continue to hang around the crucial 1.05 level.
European Union is a Mess
I do believe that the problems in Europe are multiple, and I think they are much stronger than any desire to own the Euro. However, there is the possibility that we get some type of rally from here. And I think that rally probably offers a nice shorting opportunity with some type of exhaustion. The 50 day EMA would be an area that I'd be watching, which is near the 1.0650 level.
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Then again, I'd be watching at the 1.06 level for signs of weakness in the euro that I can start shorting. As things stand right now, unless the Federal Reserve does something really crazy in the meeting, I suspect that any US dollar weakness that you see will be an opportunity to buy more. This is especially true against the euro that has now seen no confidence votes in France and Germany. Those are your two biggest players in the region, and there is no chance that it doesn’t influence the currency.
So that doesn't do much for confidence. If the market were to break down below the 1.04 level, then I think you’d got a shot at the 1.03 level and then eventually parity given enough time. I have no interest in buying the EUR/USD anytime soon. And therefore, rallies look suspicious to me, and I will trade as such as the greenback is rallying for a reason at this point in time.
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