- You can see that the Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to hang around the 1.04 level.
- All things being equal though, this is a market that is probably going to struggle to continue any type of momentum between now and possibly as long as the non-farm payroll announcement in January.
- The holiday season, the New Year's, Christmas, etc. are all coming in and taking out some of the liquidity.
It might be the thing that saved the euro. Interest rates in America continue to climb and I think that does end up being a thorn in the side of the euro as the US dollar will remain very strong. But ultimately this is a situation where traders will have to look at this as a market I believe that consolidates between the 1.03 level on the bottom and the 1.06 level on the top.
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The market trading back and forth in this 300 point range is very choppy and very difficult to get aggressive in. If we do get the occasional rally, and I think we probably will, the 50 day EMA is near that crucial 1.06 level. And of course, the 1.06 level has been important multiple times.
Still Fading Rallies
So, I think this remains very much a fade the rally type of scenario if we were to break down below the 1.03 level. And I'm not surprised if we do, we go looking to parity sometime in 2025 and that actually is my forecast. I just see no reason for the Euro to gain any real strength. At best, you're looking at sideways action for the foreseeable future. In fact, I don’t really have a scenario in which I’m willing to buy the euro against almost anything, perhaps with the exception of the Japanese yen. Even then, there are a handful of other currencies I’d rather run to.
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