- The Nasdaq 100 initially did try to recover a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but it is just pathetic how it played out during the day. It's probably worth noting that interest rates in America continue to rally and that makes a bit of a headwind for this market.
- If we break down below the 21,000 level the 50-day EMA sits right, there as well.
- If we get below those, then things get rather ugly. I think we will drop to the 20,000 level.
That would be a 10% correction, and I think that's probably okay. It is the holiday season and therefore you have to worry about liquidity and there are probably people out there willing to get a flat just to get away from the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve.
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This is the Fed’s Fault
Jerome Powell just destroyed the market yesterday, being Wednesday, as he made it obvious that he doesn't know what he's doing. The press conference was an absolute mess, and now it looks like the market has no confidence. While I don't think that is the longer term attitude of the market, in the short term, it remains a serious problem. That and a lack of liquidity both, I think, will continue to be the story here, and therefore, the downside is a very real threat, but we'll just have to wait to see how this plays out. Most market participants don't want to short the market heading into the new year, but a lot of people that have made a lot of money won't hesitate to take profit, and that might be part of what you're seeing.
Ultiamtely, I think this is a market that is trying to deal with the rising interest rates, as the bond market seems like it is ready to fight the Federal Reserve as the “bond vigilantes” are ready to make a comeback. With bonds paying so much in interest, it makes tech a little less compelling.
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