- This makes a huge difference, due to the fact that the futures markets of course have the most liquidity during the US session.
- Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the contract that you are trading in is more likely than not a derivative of the Henry Hub Natural Gas contract, which reflects the price of natural gas delivered from Henry, Louisiana.
There is a cyclical trade to be had here, as it is typical for the winter months to bring in more demand for natural gas for heating. Most of the northeastern part of the United States uses natural gas for heating, or at least some type of other gas such as propane, so these markets do tend to move somewhat in tandem. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where natural gas will continue to be thought of as a potential value play, at least on each and every dip.
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The Cycle
The cycle will end sooner or later, but it is worth noting that the market participants out there will probably continue to push this market higher over the next month or 2. After a while, then you have to start looking at the futures markets that are pricing in spring temperatures, which obviously will start to warm up and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that the market will start to fall again. This is something I do every year, and the share of course will be any different. The market had been somewhat straight up in the air for a while, so a little bit of consolidation between the $3.00 level and the $3.40 level, certainly makes a certain amount of sense. After all, the $3.40 level had been a massive barrier previously.
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