- In my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, this is a market that I'm watching very closely with the US dollar at extreme highs.
- Ultimately, this is a market that is hanging around the 59 level.
- This is an area that has been important in the past going back to October and is an all-time high, at least as far as I can tell, going back several decades.
So, when you look at the longer-term chart, it looks like we're forming an ascending triangle, and if we were to break out of this ascending triangle, in theory, it means we're going to the 65 level. Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen, but that's at least the
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In the short term, I suspect that we will continue to see the US dollar strengthen against most things. And that's especially true when you're talking about very small emerging market currencies. The Philippine economy had been rather strong earlier this year. But now with interest rates climbing in America, most investors are more interested in owning US assets instead of Philippine assets. And that includes holding paper.
Bond Yields are a Problem for Anything Not Called “The US Dollar.”
Bond yields continue to climb in America and that offers value for those willing to put some money to work in the bond markets and hold the interest rates to the upside. If we do break out above the highs of the day, we probably are going to go looking to the 60 level, which is the next large round psychologically significant figure. If we break down below here, the 58 level is an area that I think you will see a lot of support especially as the 50-day EMA hangs about. Regardless, this looks like a market that's trying to break out.
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