- While the EUR/AUD pair was bullish during the trading session on Wednesday, it’s probably worth noting that we lost about half of the gains in the middle of the session.
- This does make a certain amount of sense considering that the European Central Bank is coming up with an interest rate decision on Thursday, with an interest rate cut, and there is expected to be an interest rate cut of 25 basis points.
- However, the market already is prepared for this, I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to change much by itself. The real volatility will come from the press conference and/or statement.
Australia and China
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One of the biggest reasons the euro has been rallying against the Australian dollar is due to the fact that the Chinese economy has been so sluggish. The Australian economy is highly levered to what’s going on in China, as a huge portion of the commodities in Australia ended up on the Chinese mainland. As long as the Chinese economy is sluggish, it does make a certain amount of sense that the Australian dollar will fall. At this point in time, the 2 economies are so interlocked that it’s essentially a proxy for Chinese economic performance.
The level of 1.68 has been important multiple times above, it should offer a ceiling. However, if we were to break above it would be a very strong sign for the euro indeed. I think the Thursday session will be more about the nuances of the press conference and what people believe the European Central Bank will be going forward. While we know that they are going to be cutting interest rates, the question then becomes how many times will they be cutting interest rates this year? That could very well be the deciding factor, and if the ECB sounds a little bit uncertain about how many times they will have to cut, that could be what sins this pair higher.
Watch the 1.68 level for a bit of price action, and trade accordingly once we get there. Underneath, we have the 50 Day EMA near the 1.6550 level that should offer a significant amount of support if recent price action is to be believed in this market.
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